Daniel Nessim on growth of Orthodox Jewry
The Orthodox community worldwide is both statistically and visibly becoming a larger component of the Jewish community as a whole. It’s higher birthrate means that it is continuing to grow numerically even in many places where the total Jewish population is in decline. Over time those who choose to assimilate will do so – and be lost to us forever. On the other hand, I expect the orthodox communities to continue growing….”Secular Jewish women have on average 1.65 children whereas the ultra-orthodox have on average 6.9 – a huge difference…. ultra-orthodox Jews are set to outnumber their more secular counterparts by the second half of this century.” Good news? I would say so. But for the generation after me - I would suggest getting more used to the norms of traditional Judaism! (Daniel Nessim, Executive Director of Chosen People Ministries (UK) / UK Jewish Population Growing)
Would this mean a net increase in the overall Jewish population in the next 40 years or so? It would be good to see.
Well, that depends if there will be an OVERALL increase. There may NOT be one. This is because the secular Jewish women are either not having children at all (I recently read that something like 50% of secular Jewish women of childbearing age are unmarried and/or childless) or choose to have only 1 or 2 kids (which is way under natural replacement level). It may not be enough, in the short term at least, for the Orthodox to have more kids even at their rate to balance out the loss. However, what all this means, as Daniel Nessim wrote, is that the Orthodox Jewry is set to become the majority of Jews in the next fifty or so years.
How may this change the Jewish landscape and what may be the future significance of this development?
Does Nessim makes distinction between Orthodox and Ultra-Orthodox?
I don’t think that Nessim makes any such distinction. However, he does quote a study that specifically talks about the ultra-Orthodox becoming a majority (eventually) at their current birth rates.
Also, few people realize that, but even Chabad, a large and fairly open community that does lots out kiruv, is considered “Haredi” and “ultra-Orthodox.” So, there’s no clear line between the Orthodox and so called “ultra’s” (except perhaps when comparing the American Modern Orthodox and very insular Orthodox sects).
Actually, I’d be interested on how this might affect Messianic Judaism. Assuming the Messiah doesn’t come in the next 50 years or so, if the majority of Jews are going to be Orthodox, what will any attempt by MJ to connect to larger Jewry be like…or could it be accomplished at all?
As long as it continues to be a defacto Jewish missions arm of American Evangelicalism/Pentacostalism and has only a tiny, shrinking, aging, and mostly intermarried Jewish minority, the Messianic Jewish Movement will continue to be irrelevant to the wider Jewish world. It will also continue to irrelevant to Orthodox Jews, in particular, who would otherwise consider Yeshua, if much of it continues to be antagonistic to the traditional Jewish lifestyle or chooses to pattern itself after the various American liberal streams.
What would really be interesting and revolutionary, however, is to see a Jewish movement for Yeshua from INSIDE of a traditional community (where Jews would continue to live an observant lifestyle and continue to identify themselves with Orthodoxy – ala Shaul the “I am a Pharisee” and other devout Jewish believers in NT). If I had to guess, that’s how it just may be – G-d may do something from the inside.
” (except perhaps when comparing the American Modern Orthodox and very insular Orthodox sects”
Israel enjoys diversity of Orthodox sect including Modern (kneat Yarmolkas), it is not an American phenomenon.
“What would really be interesting and revolutionary,”
I wish. But it will never happen as long as Rabbis with agendas are running an Halacha (their own) community.
“I wish. But it will never happen as long as Rabbis with agendas are running an Halacha (their own) community.”
What is impossible with men is possible with G-d, right? Besides, everybody has an agenda – and how do you know that some major Rebbe/Rabbi may not get special “revelation” about Yeshua (as happened with Daniel Zion of Bulgaria) and take at least part of his community in that direction? Who knows how things will go years from now, but one thing is for sure – G-d is known to throw surprises.
“Israel enjoys diversity of Orthodox sect including Modern (kneat Yarmolkas), it is not an American phenomenon.”
True (about diversity), but where was it imported from (Modern Orthodoxy)? Every single “Judaism” came from some region at one point. If one traces the origins, the Modern Orthodoxy in Israel owes much to America.
” If one traces the origins, the Modern Orthodoxy in Israel owes much to America.”
I don’t know….Bnei Akiva in Israel existed before any American influence started to penetrate the country.
and how do you know that some major Rebbe/Rabbi may not get special “revelation” about Yeshua (as happened with Daniel Zion of Bulgaria) and take at least part of his community in that direction?
I had always assumed that if such a revelation occurred to a Rabbi and he (or she) announced it openly to the congregation, the Rabbi would be summarily booted out by the board of directors.
“I had always assumed that if such a revelation occurred to a Rabbi and he (or she) announced it openly to the congregation, the Rabbi would be summarily booted out by the board of directors.”
It’s not always the case, and in the case of Rabbi Daniel Zion it took the Israeli Rabbinate years to get to “defrocking” him (they put him in from of beit din), and even after that, he still had his synagogue and continued to function as an Orthodox rabbi, and was beloved by Bulgarian Jews, whom he helped rescue from the Nazis, till his dying day.
However, who knows how things will be in the future and what G-d will do. Not every Orthodox community has a “board of directors” and Rebbes/Chief Rabbis reign supreme in some of them.
However, who knows how things will be in the future and what G-d will do. Not every Orthodox community has a “board of directors” and Rebbes/Chief Rabbis reign supreme in some of them.
It is clear that I have much to learn, but I still think that a huge hurdle most Jewish communities would have to overcome in accepting Yeshua as the Messiah would be the long, long history of Jews being tortured and murdered in the name of Jesus Christ.
“I still think that a huge hurdle most Jewish communities would have to overcome in accepting Yeshua as the Messiah would be the long, long history of Jews being tortured and murdered in the name of Jesus Christ.”
That’s why when this finally does happen (welcoming of Yeshua as Messiah by Israel), it will indeed be “life from the dead”, that is to say that it will be something so miraculous and so wondrous, and it will have such great repercussions for the whole world, that it’s hard for us to fathom today.
That’s why when this finally does happen (welcoming of Yeshua as Messiah by Israel), it will indeed be “life from the dead”, that is to say that it will be something so miraculous and so wondrous, and it will have such great repercussions for the whole world, that it’s hard for us to fathom today.
I’m looking forward to that day. Good Shabbos.